CORONA VIRUS 19: NOT THE END OF THE WORLD

The world is shaken up in the wake of the Novel Corona Virus disease named COVID 19, originated from China about four months ago.  Evidently this pandemic seems to emerge as the biggest singular challenge to the world so far in the 21^st century.

Human enterprise survived for millions of years on both evolution and hope. Hope is a powerful antidote to everything that challenges the survival and progress of humankind.  This is not the first time world has been unsettled by a deadly pandemic. There are about five deadly pandemics, which have wiped out half the human population in the recorded history of human species, and there are some in the recent centuries too, which posed a huge challenge and caused massive death.  However, human will and the indomitable spirit to fight anything in the way, has led to survival, continuity and progress.

I strongly believe COVID19 will not end this world.  It will certainly test our capability to fight a pandemic of this size, all over again. There will be huge losses both physically, socially and economically, but the human race will prevail eventually.  

There was the 1918 influenza, for example, that infected nearly a third of the world’s population before it had to retract. There were other threatening viruses that appeared out of nowhere, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), the H1N1 influenza in 2009, and Ebola. Eventually, we got a handle on all of them.

But the fallout of each disease largely depends on other circumstances when we contact it, how contagious and fatal it is – how hygienic people are, and how quickly a vaccine or cure becomes available.

The death rate is not the only determining factor on how devastating and deadly a pandemic is; let’s take a look at how COVID-19 stacks up in comparison to other major pandemics of the past :

Influenza – 1918:

The 1918 Spanish flu epidemic was the deadliest pandemic we ever knew, infecting about one-third of the world’s population.

Back then, scientists didn’t know viruses caused disease, and we didn’t yet have a vaccine or antivirals to help prevent or treat influenza, nor did we have antibiotics to treat secondary bacterial infections.

Life was also very different back then. The world was in the middle of a war and soldiers carried the virus with them all over the world. People were also living in very crowded conditions even in the west and had extremely poor hygiene; this helped the disease build and rebuild.

• Key symptoms: fever, nausea, aches, diarrhea
• First detection: March 1918
• Global cases: 500 million impacted
• Global deaths: over 50 million deaths (2% death rate)
• Transmission: spread through respiratory droplets
• Most affected groups: otherwise healthy adults ages 20 to 40
• Treatments available: none
• Vaccines available: none
• End of pandemic: summer 1919; mostly due to deaths and higher immunity levels.

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) -2004:

SARS is another type of Corona Virus from China and spread quickly through respiratory droplets. Though the SARS death rate was higher than COVID-19, the current pandemic has already caused more number of deaths.

• Key symptoms: fever, respiratory symptoms, cough, malaise
• First detection: November 2002 in Guangdong province of China
• Global cases: 8,098 cases across 29 countries
• Global deaths: 774 deaths ; 15%  mortality rate
• Transmission: spread through respiratory droplets and contaminated surfaces
• Most affected groups: patients 60 and older had 55% higher death rate
• Treatment available: no treatment or cure, but antiviral medications and steroids worked for some people
• Vaccine available: a vaccine was ready around the time the pandemic was already ending
• End of pandemic: July 2003

H1N1 – 2009:

In 2009, a new type of flu a H1N1 strain developed and the world panicked as there was no vaccine and the novel strain was spreading fast.

Like COVID-19, there was no immunity at the start of the outbreak. However the world had antiviral to facilitate recovery, and by the end of 2009, we had a vaccine which combined with higher levels of immunity and could provide protection. This pandemic claimed over 2, 84,000 deaths globally.

• Key symptoms: fever, chills, cough, body aches
• First detection: January 2009 in Mexico
• Global cases: about 24 percent of global population
• Global deaths: over 2,84,000
• Most affected groups: children had the highest rates
• Vaccine available: H1N1 vaccine research started April 2009 and a vaccine became available December 2009
• End of pandemic: August 2010

EBOLA – 2014

Ebola was extremely deadly, killing up to 50 percent of those who got sick. But because it predominantly spread through bodily fluids like sweat and blood during the last stages of the disease, it wasn’t as contagious as COVID-19.

• Key symptoms: fever, aches and pains, weakness, diarrhea, vomiting
• First detection: first patient identified December 2013 in Guinea
• Global cases: 28,652 across 10 countries
• Global deaths: 11,325 deaths; death rate was about  50%
• Transmission: spread through bodily fluids
• Most affected groups: 20% of all cases occurred in children
• Treatment available: none; supportive care was provided, including IV fluids and oral re hydration
• Vaccines available: none
• End of outbreak:  2016

NOVEL CORONA VIRUS (COVID-19):

Early evidence shows COVID-19 may be more contagious other pandemics of the past and some early reports also predict COVID-19 may have a higher death rate. This is a rapidly evolving situation, and numbers and death rate estimates are likely to change as we learn more.

• Key symptoms: cough, fever, shortness of breath; 
• First detection: December 2019 in Wuhan, China
• Global cases to date: Over 127,000 and growing cases
• Global deaths to date: Over 4,700;  death rate at 3%
•  Transmission: Spreads with respiratory droplets
• Most affected groups: adults over 65 with underlying health conditions; children seem to be spared and are less affected.
• Treatments available: none yet
• Vaccines available: none yet

The experiences of the past highlight the need to curb the contagion by disassociation and social / individual distancing and isolation. The end could be triggered through an effective vaccine at the earliest in the best case scenario or through mass infection and herd immunity.  Herd immunity basically blocks out the virus, when a large chunk of the population is immune from already being sick and affected by the virus.

The microbiologists and experts in the area of developing a vaccine have a lot more to learn about this virus; until then, we need to practice social distancing to help minimize the number of people who contract it.  We need to work together to limit exposure from one to another, especially with older adults and people with underlying illness who have the greatest risk of developing severe symptoms.

We don’t need to panic. Remember; the vast majority of COVID-19 cases are mild. However, we do need to take action, to contain the spread and protect those who are most vulnerable.

COVID-19, the disease caused by the Novel Corona Virus, isn’t the first threatening disease that has attacked the humanity of the world, nor will it be the last.

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** Author is the Chief Spokesperson of BJP / an Organizational Strategist / a Global Leadership Coach. **